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2003 was a difficult year which started off with divisions on Iraq and concluded with the flop of the intergovernmental Conference in Brussels. But the annus horribilis was perhaps less horrible than at first thought. Important steps to clarify the problem of political identity and internal leadership of the EU have been accomplished. Progress has been made on security and defence but also on foreign policy. The lines of the debate on the enlarged Europe appear to be clearer today and it is not ruled out that such an agreement may be gradually pieced together in 2004 even if it is evident that Europe will not have the same characteristics as a real political Union. Future developments will see an increase in the internal flexibility of the Union through reinforced cooperation and «structured» co-operation on Defence if the Constitutional Treaty is approved or through informal co-operation tools if it isn’t. Differentiated integration will be the key to the future. However to prevent «disintegration», it is essential for reinforced co-operation to remain open and be managed according to an inclusive perspective.

In 2004 the European Union makes a decisive step towards the new Eastern frontier which opens up a new phase destined to radically change the political and economic geography of the European Union. However, great difficulties and risks lie in wake. The failure of the intergovernmental conference leaving problems of institutional reorganisation unsolved has been an alarming signal. Furthermore, 2003 brought to the fore political divisions which spit the old and new Union making the enlargement scenario highly volatile. With the aperture of the new Eastern frontier the scenario becomes more complex not helped by the failure to give Europe a more effective and credible institutional setting. But, without a constitution adopted by those who want to participate in the construction of a Europe which merits this name, the new Eastern frontier risks opening up the way to a bigger but more unruly area in which more or less provisional and contrasting alliances will be permitted.

This paper examines what differences will emerge in the European asset from the entry of 8 new member states from Eastern Europe. It also attempts to identify and assess the implications of the growing differentiation between states on the European integration process. The map of unity and diversity in the enlarged EU is extremely complex which doesn’t correspond simply to the old East-West divide. Furthermore, it is easy to find flaws in the various theories on the significance of diversity in the process of European integration. Not all types of inequality are necessarily damaging on the way (strife?) towards complete harmonisation, given that various types of multiplicity already exists in the 15-member union. Diversity can have positive or negative connotations according to context and objectives: a more diversified union can resemble a neo-medieval empire rather than a neo-Westphalian state but this doesn't necessarily mean the demise of European integration.

The countries that are about to come into the EU have adopted a transition model that gives much importance to measures for the reduction of social costs of transition, attributing a central role to redistribution policies. These States have transformed their economies, creating considerable unemployment but at the same time limiting inequalities. Income gaps have thus increased following the transition to a market economy but there have not been explosive repercussions as was the case in the ex-Soviet Republics. These redistribution policies have undoubtedly encouraged structural reforms allowing the entry of these countries into the EU but at the same time, they have caused fiscal imbalances. The correction of such imbalances is one of the more the most complex problems that the new member countries will have to face in a context of EU fiscal regulations which have been conceived for countries at much higher levels of development.

Spurred by the ongoing discussion on the principles of a EU Constitutional Treaty, the two US authors explore the development processes of norms currently in force in the Union, highlighting the elements of democracy. Defined as «concerted polyarchy», they interpret European decision-making procedures as a process in which the solution to problems is founded on the permanent imbalance between motivations and interests and on the organised and collective exploration of the resulting differences. The decision taken is «polyarchic» as the analysis and approval depend on mutual control by the decentralised operators, facilitated by the existence of a central structure. In this sense, although an intrinsically democratic concerted polyarchy doesn’t exist, it stimulates the exploration of diversity to expose the decision-makers to full appraisal, transforming the obstacle of diversity into an instrument to accelerate and broaden the search for solutions.

The article outlines the history of social Europe and describes the present situation, focusing on the implications of the European Council of Lisbon in March 2000 when Heads of State and governments decided to set a new ambitious objective for the EU: to become the most competitive knowledge economy in the world, based on full quality employment with an increased social cohesion. The common strategy for occupation, the new social agenda and the efforts for greater co-operation on inclusion and social protection are examined in detail. The article also takes a look at the future scenario, examining the results of the Convention from a social perspective and drawing some conclusions on the prospects of the intergovernmental conference.

The paper focuses on the importance of social dialogue in the enlargement process of the European Union, intended as a support for the strategy of convergence towards the progressive reduction of existent economic and social gaps between the new member countries and the rest of the Union. It is clear that the efficacy of European social dialogue depends on the existence of a solid national industrial relations system, and thus on the stronger legitimisation and representativeness of the social partners and the development of collective bargaining.

The entry of 10 new countries in the European Union has increased interest in their situation, especially in relation to policies pursued by the member countries and regarding above all the European strategy for employment and the «modernisation» of social protection systems. Great differences between the various national systems still persist which are based on very different economic, social and cultural situations. The extension of the «Open Co-operation Method» procedures to the candidate countries appears to be a natural consequence of the processes initiated among the member countries to define the necessary objectives for the construction of the «social model» which will characterise the future of Europe.

Poverty in post communist countries of Eastern Europe is the result not only of the transition to a market economy but also the rise to power of a new incapable and corrupt ruling class, the political priorities of governments and incoherent social policy measures. The most evident consequences of this transformation is a growth in poverty and income disparity. In fact there are great national and sub-regional differences. The situation is particularly critical in the Community of Independent States and in the south-eastern European countries, whereas it is less so in Central-Eastern Europe. Measures to reduce poverty have turned out to be inefficient and ineffective even if tailored to a definite target and means tested. Most reforms on welfare have been concentrated on pensions. With impending EU enlargement, increasingly greater influence must be yielded by the European social model or the strategy proposed by the World Bank. The central point seems to pivot on the matter of what political, social, institutional subject can initiate a broader reform of the welfare state.

After the fall of the socialist regime, the countries which were part of the block have had to construct institutions and create activities that didn’t exist before: this paper examines the ways in which the new welfare model is emerging in Hungary and its main features. It analyses the Hungarian social model in the light of social policy strategies pursued to confront the problems inherited from the past and those that have emerged following the process of transformation and the considerable involvement of society in the creation and management of services.

European migration policies face great challenges. After many years of mostly unregulated inflows of foreigners into the EU, it is time to take a new approach focusing on economic criteria and taking the new social and economic realities in the EU into account. The recruitment of «high potentials» must become a cornerstone of a new EU migration policy. With the eastward enlargement in sight, the union must agree on new migration regulations or quotas for the highly qualified from Eastern Europe. Closing the borders to the West for citizens of the new EU member states for up to another seven years - as the majority of member states plan to do - would result in a loss of important human capital needed to further strengthen the competitiveness of a larger EU in the world economy.

This paper - which was given as the «Lecture 2003» of the Associazione Manlio Rossi Doria - investigates, first of all, the crisis of the «fordist system of welfare» and of its three main social institutions: the nuclear family; the big industrial firm; and the «Social Security Welfare State». These institutions granted economic security to workers and retired people, but they restrained their chances of self-fulfilment in the professional field. Today radical changes are occurring in the labour market and the family. The «map» of social risks also has undergone wide changes. Economic insecurity and job precariousness are growing, but - at the same time - new chances are opened for social and professional mobility. The second part of the paper analyses recent social and employment policies, adopted in some European countries, which allow to outline the contours of a new welfare system, more suitable to reconcile social security and self-fulfilment of the individual.

The paper gives an overview of the stages which have led to enlargement and illustrates the relative conditions and prospects. It then goes on to examine the compatibility and harmonisation of welfare policies and of the social rights of European workers. All countries in Central and Eastern European countries have social security systems with common features stemming from the pre-communist era. With the «fall of the wall» a reform process was initiated especially of the pension systems spurred by fiscal reasons and negative demographic trends. The outlines examine the organisation and structure of the social protection system, funding sources and services rendered. The information has been taken from the Missceec II document of January 1 2002 drawn up by the European Institute of Social Security.

The paper presents a series of useful perspectives to comprehend if and how the harmonisation process of social and occupation policies at the EU level has been developed and which key concepts are necessary to interpret its progress. The analysis thus proposes some considerations/definitions of the term «harmonisation», focusing on two main aspects: firstly the process of harmonisation in relation to the creation/stabilisation of the so-called «social European model'; secondly the harmonisation process in relation to the EU enlargement process to find out how the future new EU states have been helped/supported to harmonise their own policies on social and occupational matters and in which direction such a process of harmonisation has been targeted, towards which values and development models and with which results/prospects.

The article analyses the evolution that the process of EU constitutional reform has achieved over this past year. It looks into the innovations introduced in the Constitutional Treaty approved in July 2003 at the European Convention and the proposals of the government and the Italian representatives. The paper then goes over the debate at the intergovernmental conference and the role played by the Italian EU Presidency (July-December 2003). It also highlights the critical aspects which led to the breakdown in negotiations at the Intergovernmental Conference and the underlying political motivations. Lastly, it indicates a few steps which need to be taken to restart negotiations, given that the European Parliamentary elections are to be held in June 2004.